Peak Oil refers to a time when humanity is no longer able to produce more oil globally than we did the year before. When peak happens, economies will shrink instead of grow, and the planet could feel a deeper global oil shock than those that were felt during the seventies.

Economically, politically and socially, the results could be catastrophic if we do not change the way our world operates before this event. As global corporations and governments do little or nothing to prepare for this eventuality, it becomes a community imperative to try become more self-reliant in order to mitigate some of the effects of political and economic meltdowns.

Wikipedia, the online encyclopedia, explains:
“The Hubbert peak theory is named for geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who correctly predicted the peak of U.S. oil production fifteen years in advance. While controversial, the theory increasingly influences policy makers within government and the oil industry. The current debate is rarely about whether there will be a peak, but rather when it will occur and the severity of the post-peak effects.”

Is this just a theory? How certain is all this?

Regardless of debates on the origins of oil and whether it is a naturally replenishing resource or a finite one-time endowment, the fact remains that the U.S. has produced less oil every year since 1970, and we have used more oil than we found in almost every year since 1982. The world is showing signs of a plateau and decline formation similar to the one the U.S. has experienced over the last 35 years, as shown in the graph below:

U.S. production is the bright green area on the bottom. Note the peak around 1970.

The reason we can tell the declines are coming is because Hubbert found that the curve of production follows but lags behind the curve of discovery. The global picture looks like this:

Can’t we just use less?

We will have to live with less oil eventually. However, until it is simply not available, voluntarily cutting consumption would be the equivalent of suicide for our economy as it is structured today.

Our modern economy is based on debt, and such an economy must grow to ensure that ever larger future revenues can pay today’s debts. For decades we have heard economic watchdogs complain that politicians in Washington are sacrificing our childrens’ future to pay for the deficits of today. A growing economy ensures that we don’t need to face up to today’s deficit or last year’s debt, but economies can only grow by using more energy.

As we pass the global peak and there is less oil to use than there was yesterday, our nation (and the world) will have to reckon with the downsides of the debt-based economy. Those downsides may be just as extreme as the upsides have been for the last 50 years.

What are business and government doing? If this is so real and threatening why haven’t we heard from them about it?

When oil powerhouse Shell cut their reserve estimates in 2004, their stock plummeted 6% on the news (see www.oilcrisis.com). Admissions like that are risky business. Still, the industry is starting to face up to what has become obvious: world demand is going to outstrip supplies that cannot substantially grow any more. In an article in Financial Times (archived at www.energybulletin.net), Carola Hoyos discusses some of the other recent industry responses to Peak Oil. It is a tricky area because there is so much at stake.

Government has just as much to lose by admitting peak oil. If they admitted that the most important commodity on earth was about to go into production decline, wouldn’t it be obvious to Cindy Sheehan and everyone else what the “noble cause” in Iraq really was? Remember: in 2004, John Kerry wasn’t suggesting he would pull out of Iraq either.

The U.S. can’t afford to lose any military footholds in the most oil rich area in the world. China and India contain half the world’s population, and their citizens would love the chance to use just 1/4 of the energy that each American uses. The world produces 84 million barrels of oil per day. The U.S. uses 21 million barrels of oil each day. We have but 4% of the global population yet we use almost 25% of its cheapest energy.

Any official admission of peak oil would also be an implicit admission that the U.S. is in no way entitled to our disproportionate consumption of the remaining global reserves at current rates. The economic growth problem rears its ugly head again. No, government and business cannot afford to have this debate openly and honestly. Nobody gets re-elected for scaring the public, and businesses don’t contribute to your campaign if you are desperately trying to get consumers to buy fewer goods. Jimmy Carter was the last politician to tell us we have to live more simply and conserve energy. We booted him out of office for it.

So, instead of having a heart-to-heart with the public over our cheap energy addiction, business and government jockey for strategic positions around the energy rich Middle East and Caspian regions. Meanwhile, major media outlets keep the American public dreaming of all the ways that some mythical “they” could invent a solution to the problems we face. We can’t affort to keep all our eggs in that basket.

What about alternative energy?

Alternative energy is great! Renewables might save our lives, if we’re the lucky ones. Unfortunately, alternatives are not energy-rich enough to maintain an industrialized planetary population of 7 billion people. Only oil has been able to create the kind of power mankind requires to run this world we’ve built. Without it, we’re going to be short, no matter how well we do with alternatives. As societies ignore issues like Peak Oil, global warming, habitat destruction, soil depletion and watershed destruction, each day brings a higher likelihood that the only resolution will come in the form of a massive population reduction via exposure, disease and starvation.

Critical to evaluating alternatives is an understanding that we’re also facing a natural gas crisis similar to the coming oil crisis. Moving to alternatives just depletes those alternatives even faster than we are already depleting them. Solar generation requires petroleum energy to mine silicon, silver and copper. Nuclear requires uranium. The hydrogen economy is a fairy tale. Alternatives don’t work well for transportation, and that’s why we still use oil for 90% of transportation energy today. There are no easy answers here.

Excellent and thorough treatment of this question is offered at http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

When is peak going to happen?

Most realistic estimates put the year at 2007-2020. Some highly optimistic figures put it at 2037 or later. Some highly qualified energy insiders, like Matthew Simmons (a respected energy investment banker and a member of Cheney’s 2001 energy task force), believe it may already have happened.

What can I do to prepare myself and my family?

• Get out of debt. Eliminate credit card debt first.
• Imagine your house during a rolling blackout. How could you make it more livable?
• Keep some clean water and non-perishable food around the house.
• Keep a week’s worth of cash in the house.
• Get to know your neighbors. Make friends with them.
• Find a way to use mass transit, or, consider moving closer to work.
• Buy a share in Community Supported Agriculture.
• Learn how to save, store and repair things instead of throwing them away.
• Learn how to garden organically and save rainwater.

Unfortunately, none of these moves guarantee safety. If society disintegrates, we all lose. The best defense against Peak Oil is a strong community.

So, What else can you do?

Come to Seattle Peak Oil Awareness meetings and get involved!